Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.105684 0.118995 0.133367 0.150042 0.168867 0.189470 0.213745
2025-12-14 0.080534 0.097150 0.116382 0.140310 0.169321 0.203405 0.246564
2025-12-21 0.063206 0.081163 0.103302 0.132656 0.170648 0.218283 0.282744
2025-12-28 0.052770 0.071845 0.096795 0.131920 0.180270 0.244742 0.337681
2026-01-04 0.043435 0.062462 0.088771 0.127955 0.185122 0.265926 0.389617
2026-01-11 0.036795 0.055721 0.083297 0.126624 0.193430 0.293254 0.455100
2026-01-18 0.031896 0.050719 0.079543 0.127190 0.204627 0.326645 0.535676
2026-01-25 0.026464 0.044036 0.072215 0.121054 0.204439 0.342534 0.591689
2026-02-01 0.021916 0.038056 0.065085 0.114071 0.201692 0.353803 0.642101
2026-02-08 0.018689 0.033793 0.060157 0.110020 0.203272 0.372645 0.709240
2026-02-15 0.015963 0.029990 0.055450 0.105588 0.203410 0.388895 0.774570
2026-02-22 0.014422 0.028124 0.053954 0.106871 0.214473 0.427292 0.889916
2026-03-01 0.012376 0.025033 0.049802 0.102557 0.214308 0.444752 0.968290
2026-03-08 0.010862 0.022764 0.046919 0.100357 0.218164 0.471230 1.071619
2026-03-15 0.009576 0.020766 0.044287 0.098260 0.221932 0.498324 1.182236
2026-03-22 0.008820 0.019780 0.043625 0.100354 0.235402 0.549286 1.359125
2026-03-29 0.007920 0.018334 0.041745 0.099380 0.241653 0.584904 1.506549
2026-04-05 0.007237 0.017281 0.040589 0.099924 0.251691 0.631501 1.692109
2026-04-12 0.006704 0.016497 0.039939 0.101603 0.264904 0.688520 1.917956
2026-04-19 0.005911 0.014956 0.037237 0.097648 0.262872 0.706005 2.039076
2026-04-26 0.005169 0.013430 0.034345 0.092719 0.257376 0.713339 2.133164
2026-05-03 0.004623 0.012331 0.032376 0.089947 0.257373 0.735925 2.278011
2026-05-10 0.004122 0.011274 0.030363 0.086717 0.255507 0.752954 2.409991